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Abacus Data found that more than two in 10 voters feel comfortable swinging between the Liberals and NDP but would never mark the ballot for the PCs.These swing voters are more likely to be women, under age 60, and 42% work in the public sector.

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The Tories have the advantage of a “motivated” base, but growth potential is limited among overall voters, he said.

“The Tories — they have a ceiling and they’re fairly close to it right now,” Coletta said.

The Liberals are at the front of the pack in Toronto and eastern Ontario, and with female voters and those aged 30 to 44.

PCs enjoy the advantage in southwestern Ontario and are slightly ahead in the riding-rich 905 region around Toronto, and among seniors and male voters.

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About 10% of Ontario voters have completely written off the NDP but could be swayed to support either the Liberals or Tories, the poll revealed.

These voters tend to be 45 or older and the majority work in the private sector.

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“The biggest liability for the Liberals and the biggest opportunity for the Conservatives is that suburban Toronto voter right now might not be thinking that the Liberals deserve to get another shot at it and are considering the Conservatives.